Income redistribution and electoral support for left parties in modern democracies lack behind what one would expect if voters prioritised their economic self-interest during elections. This finding is especially puzzling in the context of Latin America, where economic wealth is concentrated among a small proportion of citizens and, thus, a majority of the population should have a strong incentive to vote for leftist pro-redistribution parties. However, income remains a surprisingly weak predictor of electoral support for left parties in Latin America.
This paper investigates these paradoxical findings in the context of Latin America’s largest and most populated country – Brazil. To address the research puzzle, voter ideology is conceptualized along an economic dimension, characterized by attitudes toward redistributive policies, and a cultural dimension, characterized by attitudes toward sexual morality. Building on this two-dimensional understanding of voter ideology, the thesis focuses on two specific research question:
(1) How do religiosity, religious denominations, and income shape attitudes toward redistribution and sexual morality?
(2) Do moral and/or redistributive preferences mediate the influence of religiosity, denominational differences, and income on electoral support for left parties in Brazil?
The study employs a multi-method approach, combining qualitative data from fieldwork in Rio de Janeiro with large-n survey data from the World Value Survey (WVS) and the Latin American Opinion Project (LAPOP). Qualitative data is used to adapt existing theories on the links between religion and voting behaviour to the context of Brazil and formulate well-grounded hypotheses. Exploratory factor analysis using WVS data is used to construct and validate measurements of attitudes toward redistribution and sexual morality. Multivariate regression analyses of WVS and LAPOP data are employed to test the hypotheses regarding citizens’ attitudes towards sexual morality and redistribution as well as voting behaviour.
Three key conclusions can be drawn from the research findings. Firstly, attitudes toward sexual morality and redistribution represent two distinct dimensions of voter ideology. Secondly, religiosity, measured vis-à-vis church attendance, and denominational differences matter more for explaining the lack of electoral support for left parties than income differences. Finally, conservative attitudes toward sexual morality, rather than opposition to redistributive policies, explain the negative impact of church attendance and Evangelical identification on voting for left parties.
Overall, the results highlight that religious divides and political conflict over sexual morality are more influential in determining electoral outcomes in Brazil than economic divides and conflict over wealth redistribution. The final discussion section elaborates on the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.