Geopolitics Meets Economic Interests: Business Lobbying Amid Security Concerns

From semiconductor export bans to China to investment screening mechanisms, contemporary trade policy is increasingly linked to national security. How do business actors lobby in the context of this growing geopoliticization of trade? We argue that business actors primarily defend their short-term economic interests, even amidst geopolitical challenges. As a result, we expect the potential beneficiaries of relatively free trade such as exporting industries to downplay the security implications of trade policies, while import-competing business interests should emphasize these implications to bolster their position. We test this argument using novel data from public consultations on several trade policy measures recently discussed in Australia, the European Union, and the United States. The analysis focuses on seven policies directly or indirectly related to China that are in process or were already implemented in all these jurisdictions and for which consultations were held. Employing computational text analysis based on around 1500 observations, we examine how business actors frame their positions in their consultation submissions. We then regress the resulting measure on the economic competitiveness of the sectors these actors represent. Since most participants in consultations are business associations rather than individual firms, the analysis is conducted at the sectoral level. In robustness checks, however, we replace associations with the five largest member companies to conduct analyses at the firm level. A qualitative case study drawing on interviews sheds light on the causal mechanism. The paper contributes to research on lobbying, trade policymaking, and the role of geopolitics in the contemporary world economy.