Party Loyalty Over Individuality? The Role of Candidates’ Party Ties in Electoral Outcomes

The decline of ideological and class-based references in party competition has contributed to the increasing personalization of the political process, prompting many European political parties across the ideological spectrum to include non-partisan or independent candidates on their ballots. This strategy aims to attract voters from diverse ideological backgrounds or those who prioritize candidates’ individual characteristics over party affiliation. But how crucial is a candidate’s party identity and organizational involvement for their electoral success? Are loyal party members with strong ties to party structures more likely to win elections than independent or minimally partisan candidates recruited to broaden a party’s appeal? Furthermore, does this dynamic differ between parties with a highly partisan voter base and those with electorates characterized by greater ideological diversity? To address these questions, we analyze data from candidate and voter surveys covering 62 elections in 22 European countries between 2005 and 2021. Using voter surveys, we calculate the average partisanship of party electorates, while candidate surveys provide insights into the relationship between candidates’ involvement in party structures and their electoral success. This study sheds light on the intersection of candidate characteristics, voter behaviour, and party strategies in contemporary European politics.