No Conservative Bias in Citizens’ Second-Order Political Beliefs in Western Europe

What people believe others think — second-order political beliefs — are thought to influence both the formation of public opinion and the broader political environment in which policy debates unfold. These beliefs may be especially relevant in domains where progress depends on broad social consensus and collective commitment. This article examines two such challenges in contemporary democracies: the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and the inclusion of religious minorities. Using an innovative survey-experimental design fielded in six European countries, we examine how citizens perceive the opinions of their fellow citizens across concrete policy proposals. Specifically, we analyze responses to proposals for removing or adding meal options, framed either as promoting climate-friendly choices or as accommodating Muslim religious practices. Our design varies the zero-sum versus non-zero-sum nature of proposed changes to capture variation in (perceived) support. We address a key limitation in prior research: the apparent conservative bias in second-order beliefs might be inflated due to liberal over-reporting in first-order attitudes. When we employ more tangible policy items with less inflated baseline support, the conservative bias in second-order beliefs proves substantially smaller and more conditional than previously suggested.