Turnout and Salience at Concurrently Held Second-Order Elections: Evidence from Five EU Member States

European elections are usually considered second-order, with their outcome being determined by domestic politics. However, the many crises that the EU has experienced since 2009 have steadily increased the salience of the EU issues in EU elections. Local elections are also considered second-order, as their lower salience drives lower turnout. Drawing on original survey data in sixteen EU countries, out of which five (Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Hungary and Romania) had concurrent local and EU elections, we advance the literature by studying how satisfaction with national and local governments, as well as place attachment alters the way municipal and European Parliamentary elections influence each other when these second-order elections are held at the same time. The evidence we present leverages a two-wave panel survey (N= 63,000) fielded one month before (6 – 12 May), and immediately after (12 June – 2 July) the 2024 EP elections in countries where local and EP elections were held concurrently. To investigate the effects of satisfaction with mayors, national and EU-level decision makers on turnout and party choice, we employ a rich dataset with information on vote intention, party identification, as well as regional, national and European identities. Utilizing a difference-in-difference (DID) approach (Italy) and pooled OLS models with country fixed effects, we furthermore study whether holding local and EP elections together incentivize higher (or lower) turnout among particular respondent subgroups, notably populist, Euroskeptic and Europhile voters. Our results speak to the existing research on policy congruence, voter turnout, the role of territorial vs. functional cleavages in EU-level politics, as well as spillover effects of solidaristic crisis responses into other electoral arenas of multi-level, compound polities.