Political Issues in Federal Democracies: The Case of Brazil

Parties compete in elections by offering public policies, whose function varies according to different models of party competition. In the Downsian proximity model, proposals aim to attract the median voter and, therefore, exert a centripetal effect on competition. Alternative models, on the other hand, emphasize that parties have incentives to offer more specific policies tied to their own agendas. From this perspective, while changes and adjustments over time are expected — and even desirable — parties must maintain a certain level of coherence and credibility in their proposals. However, little attention has been paid to the degree of similarity in party offerings at the same point in time but across different subsets of the electorate. In a federal country, parties compete at different levels and thus face dilemmas between programmatic coherence and adaptation. The Brazilian case is extremely useful for addressing these aspects. Alongside the United States, India, Mexico, and Germany, Brazil is one of the largest democratic federations in the world, with three levels of government: the Union, 26 states, 1 federal district, and 5,571 municipalities. However, unlike these countries, the Brazilian party system is traditionally characterized as fragmented, amorphous, and ideologically inconsistent. Although various studies in recent years have presented evidence that mitigates these attributes to some extent, the notion persists that Brazilian parties are ideologically heterogeneous across federal levels and among subnational units. Nevertheless, adequate empirical tests to support this characterization are still lacking. Simultaneously, in recent years, Brazil has seen the emergence of (far) right-wing political forces, reflecting a trend also present in other countries, which has contributed to increasing the ideological salience of existing parties — some of which have traditionally been seen as purely office-seekers. This paper investigates these matters by comparing government programs presented by major Brazilian parties in elections from 2010 to 2024, focusing on competition for executive positions: the Presidency, State Governorships, and Capital City Mayorships. It thus covers four electoral cycles for federal, state, and municipal executive offices. We apply automated text analysis techniques to the programs submitted by candidates to the Electoral Court, identifying the spatial position of parties in the competition, their core issues, and the federal alignment of their swing or contextual issues. The results will also be analyzed in light of electoral data for each contest, considering the presence and performance of each party. A crucial dimension of the analysis is the temporal aspect. National and state elections occur simultaneously, while municipal elections are held mid-term for these officeholders. Thus, different incentives exist for programmatic similarity and change. We expect this study to contribute to the broader discussion on political issues in electoral contests, with a focus on federal democracies.