A Split in the Brazilian Far-Right? The 2024 Municipal Election in São Paulo

Local elections are typically perceived as focusing on local issues. However, in Brazil, elections in state capitals have consistently reflected national party disputes and significantly influenced subsequent presidential elections. Since 2018, following the victory of the far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro, there has been a noticeable shift in the political agenda of competing parties. While earlier electoral debates centered around social and economic issues, Bolsonaro's campaign brought moral and cultural issues to the forefront. These themes continued to dominate the political scene in the 2022 presidential election, although this time, the center-left coalition, led by the Workers' Party (PT) candidate Lula da Silva, emerged victorious. In the 2024 municipal elections, the support of these two political forces — and their primary leaders, Lula and Bolsonaro — played a decisive role in shaping the election outcomes across most state capitals. São Paulo was pivotal in reinforcing the influence of the two major political forces and in setting the stage for the forthcoming 2026 presidential election. Furthermore, the municipal election in São Paulo introduced a new dynamic to Brazilian politics: a split within the far-right faction. This paper aims to analyze the 2024 electoral contest in São Paulo (SP), Brazil's largest and wealthiest state capital. Understanding São Paulo’s election is essential for examining the relationship between national and local elections in Brazil, as well as the roles of national and state leaders in shaping local candidates’ performances. A significant development in this election was the rise of a radical outsider, Pablo Marçal, who directly challenged Bolsonaro's dominance over the conservative right-wing electorate. Throughout the campaign, Marçal emerged as a strong contender, posing a serious threat to both Bolsonaro — and Lula — supported candidates. Despite Marçal’s challenge, Ricardo Nunes, the traditional right-wing candidate, secured reelection in the second round. Marçal’s campaign rhetoric not only reverberated with Bolsonaro’s base but also appealed to the aspirations of the lower-middle class, particularly their desires for upward socioeconomic mobility through entrepreneurship. His speeches and actions gained substantial national attention, and he openly expressed his ambitions to run for the presidency. The growing influence of the far-right in São Paulo, as we see it, is part of a broader trend in which political issues and values transcend local boundaries. This paper explores the extent and implications of the far-right split through the lens of the narratives and campaign strategies employed by right-wing candidates in São Paulo. Our analysis considers the actions and stances of state and national leaders, voter intentions throughout the campaign, and the final election results. The primary focus, however, is on the candidates’ electoral discourse and their appeals to voters. The data for this analysis includes free televised campaign advertisements provided by Brazilian electoral law, TV debates, media interviews, and social media appearances. Beyond its specific focus, this paper seeks to contribute to a broader discussion about the far-right’s strategies and influence across different levels of electoral competition.