Unfrozen Conflicts. Peacebuilding and Democracy with Multiple External Actors in Southeastern Europe & the South Caucasus

Daniel Bochsler, Central European University (CEU) & University of Belgrade Literature on peacebuilding builds on the image of the external intervener being a united actor, with a single version of peace. At latest, after 2022, this is no longer the case in post-conflict countries and frozen conflicts in South-East Europe and the South Cacuasus, where Russia and the West increasingly differ in their goals. How does the rivalry between external actors – democracies and autocracies - affect the prospects for stability and democracy in post-conflict countries? This paper proposes a game theoretical model of peacebuilding in countries with multiple external actors engaged in post-conflict stability. It therefore analyses the choices made by domestic political actors, such as governing parties or oppositions, in aligning or realigning with external partners, and in their domestic actions. Empirically, I compare four post-conflict countries or countries with frozen conflict in Southeastern Europe and the South Caucasus. I assess the stability and changes of domestic actors (governments, oppositions) on their positioning on conflict-related issues, as well as their (non-)democratic orientation and foreign policy agenda over the period of 2008-2024.