State Repression and Protest Intensity: Exploring the Deterrence-Backlash Puzzle Through a Gendered Lens

Participation in protests within autocratic regimes is associated with considerable personal risks, as the state’s response often entails severe repression, which can lead to physical harm, long prison sentences, or even death. Despite these risks, many empirical examples from various autocratic countries show that this does not necessarily stop citizens from mobilizing. Previous studies examining the effect of state repression on protest intensity have, however, produced inconsistent findings. While some studies find that the use of repression deters further protest activity by increasing its costs, others argue that repression sparks further mobilization that leads to backlash protests. These inconsistent findings may stem from a lack of disaggregation of protest types. I aim to add to these discussions by incorporating a gendered perspective, as the role of gender in shaping the influence of repression has been largely overlooked. Gender structurally influences all individual and collective experiences, including political protests. I argue that incorporating gender into the deterrence-backlash-puzzle literature is valuable to gain a more comprehensive understanding on how repression affects different types of protests and different types of protestors. Gender shapes the forms of violence individuals face and the ways in which they are targeted. Previous research has shown that demonstrations involving women are disproportionately met with force and that women often experience different forms of repression compared to men, particularly sexual violence, abductions and forced disappearances. This study argues that it is crucial to differentiate protests by gender and poses the central research question: Does repression exert a disparate effect on the intensity of women’s protests compared to general protests? Drawing on the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) as a main data source, this study groups protest events from a global sample of autocratic regimes into more than 3,000 protest waves with events spanning the years 2021 - 2024. Using event study methodology, I compare the effect of repression on protest intensity in general protests to its effect on the intensity of women’s protests. In this study, women’s protests are defined as demonstrations where the majority of participants are women, women’s groups, or movements organized around women’s rights. The findings show that the effects of state repression are substantially different for women’s protests. By disentangling two types of protests by gender, this study challenges existing assumptions about repression’s uniform effects. It also highlights the value of event study methodology in protest research, which allows for a precise understanding of the evolution of protest dynamics over time. Most importantly, it underscores the importance of incorporating gender when analyzing political violence.