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Valence and Positional Issues in Affective Polarization: How Valence Influences Voter Sentiments

Voting
Identity
Immigration
Experimental Design
Alberto Stefanelli
Yale University
Alberto Stefanelli
Yale University

Abstract

Affective polarization has intensified globally, driven in part by policy disagreements between political candidates. Yet, current research has largely ignored that voters may also develop negative feelings towards opposing parties if they are unable to deliver voters’ preferred policy positions. To test this possibility, we conducted an experiment with a representative Italian sample, manipulating valence considerations (unemployment and immigration levels) alongside voters' preferred positions on two cultural issues (abortion and same-sex marriage) and two economic issues (welfare and the redistribution). Results suggests that valence considerations are as, if not more, important as positional issues in driving affective polarisation. In addition, we find that voters become more polarised when candidates trade positive valence positions for voters’ favourite positional issues. This indicates that while policy positions matter, a candidate’s inability to deliver effective policy triggers strong emotional reactions, intensifying affective polarization.