Czech Party System Erosion in the Context of Global Crises: Searching for Stability

Party systems in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have recently experienced instability, marked by the rise of new political parties often founded as personal vehicles for political entrepreneurs. Although substantial academic work has examined this phenomenon, gaps remain in understanding the long-term effects of these changes on voter behavior and party systems. This paper addresses these gaps by analyzing unique longitudinal panel survey data from Czechia to examine the erosion and reconfiguration of the party system in the context of multiple societal crises. Our research seeks to answer two main questions: (1) Who are the voters most likely to switch their electoral choices? (2) What factors drive these changes in voting behavior? Using quantitative methods, we analyze patterns in voter switching and identify the social, economic, and political influences shaping these shifts. Our preliminary findings reveal a high degree of variability across demographics, with younger voters initially leading the trend of erosion in support for new right-leaning parties. More recently, however, economically vulnerable and older voters, traditionally aligned with left-leaning parties, have shown a tendency to change their preferences. The study provides new insights into the drivers of electoral instability in CEE and highlights the impact of crises on voter loyalty and party system coherence. By examining long-term voter behavior, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of the evolving political landscape in Czechia and CEE, offering implications for the future stability and structure of party systems in the region.