The Impact of Local Vulnerabilities on Electoral Volatility

Empirical research has long shown that voting behaviour is affected not only by individual-level factors but also by spatial differences. Regional inequalities and rural-urban divides are, for instance, identified as key drivers of populist voting and electoral turnout. Much less is, however, known about the relationship between territorial vulnerabilities and electoral behaviour. Indeed, while several scholars have examined specific vulnerabilities at the individual level (i.e. vulnerable social groups), little attention has been given to the role of territorial fragility. This paper aims to fill this gap by exploring how the vulnerability of (local) territories affects electoral turnout. In particular, we argue that voters do not only hold political actors accountable for national or regional economic performance, as economic voting theories suggest, but also for other forms of insecurities and weaknesses. Consequently, we expect that people living in areas more exposed to risks and hazards are more likely to change their turnout patterns, thereby signalling their (dis)satisfaction with politicians’ inability to prevent adverse events or promote the necessary interventions to mitigate their exposure. To test this hypothesis, we analise electoral turnout at the municipal level in Italy between the last two parliamentary elections (2018 and 2022) employing the Pedersen Index. Additionally, we assess the degree of vulnerability of Italian municipalities using three novel compounded indices that capture the sensitivity and exposure of local territories to health hazards, economic and financial crises, and hydrogeological risks.