Foreign Policy Analysis, Change and Feedback Processes

Whilst foreign policy analysis (FPA) has paid increasing attention to policy change, the role of earlier policy decisions in shaping the conditions for change through feedback effects has been under-explored. As a consequence, explanations of policy change often over-emphasize the part played by immediate, proximate variables or exogenous shocks. Drawing upon studies of domestic policy development, we argue that feedback effects are pivotal in explanations of change and should be understood more broadly so as to include both resource-conferment and interpretative effects. While feedback processes do not determine the character of subsequent policy choices, they make particular policy options more or less credible and make it more or less likely that change will take place. The paper concludes by considering US policy towards China during the 1990s and the granting of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) within a feedback-based framework.