Exiting the Stage: How Looming Exit Shapes MEPs’ Representational Behavior

Understanding how legislators balance their dual roles as party actors and representatives of the people is critical for assessing the health of democratic systems. This paper investigates how the anticipation of parliamentary exit influences the representational behavior of Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). Drawing on a combination of legislative speech data and voting records from 2009 to 2024, we examine whether MEPs nearing exit shift their focus away from party group loyalty and whether they prioritize the national party or their constituents. To investigate these shifts in representation we incorporate data on reasons for MEP departures and post-parliamentary careers. Grounded in theories of representation and dual (or triple) accountability, our analysis leverages a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach to compare the same MEPs before and after they become aware of their pending departure. The findings shed light on the interplay between institutional constraints and personal incentives, offering new insights into how democratic accountability evolves in the context of career transitions. These results hold implications for understanding the behavior of legislators in term-limited and transitional systems more broadly.