Greening or Gridlock? Protest, Politicization and Policy Change in EU Agri-Food Policy.

The EU’s agri-food sector is both a major driver of environmental risks and highly vulnerable to their consequences. In recent years, calls for greening have gained momentum, driven by the emergence of environmental policy entrepreneurs, including civil society groups and protest movements. However, these efforts face growing resistance from established agricultural stakeholders. As a result, the transition toward sustainable agriculture has become increasingly politicized. Existing research suggests that politicisation may intersect with the involvement of right-wing coalitions in protest movements. Yet, the dynamics of these protests at the EU level, the role of right-wing actors, and the impact of politicisation on much-needed policy reform remain underexplored. To address this, we apply the PDPC model to analyse protest discourses on sustainable agriculture during a period of heightened politicisation (2018-September 2024). Conceptualising politicisation as both a strategy and process, we view protest as a potential hyper-politicisation strategy for escalating political contention dynamics. Using Discourse Network Analysis on Euractiv newspaper articles, we examine patterns of politicisation and depoliticization and their link to policy change or withdrawal in the context of the post-2020 CAP (reform). Our preliminary findings indicate a trend of increasing politicisation, peaking during a wave of farmer protests, and declining after the European Parliamentary elections. A critical turning point appears in 2022-2023, when policy elites achieve discursive hegemony, effectively side-lining greening concerns. Established actors appear to have strategically framed the discourse as polarised, creating barriers to accommodating emerging actors and ideas. We also identify the emergence of a right-wing network during periods of hyper-politicisation, which appears to influence conservative and liberal parties’ positions within the discourse. These dynamics further shape the trajectory of EU agricultural policy, culminating in the withdrawal of core greening components. Ultimately, these developments reinforce exceptionalist legacies and productionist-oriented policies, leaving little room for transformative policy reform.