War as a Catalyst: Russia’s Public Diplomacy on Chinese Social Media During the Russo-Ukrainian War

This study investigates Russia’s information operations on the Chinese social media platform Weibo and analyzes Chinese citizens’ reactions amid the Russo-Ukrainian War. Unlike previous studies that mainly focus on public responses to authoritarian states’ narratives in democracies, this research explores public engagement with Russia’s narratives in similar authoritarian environments. By using computational text analysis and regression discontinuity design, we find that the war greatly boosts public engagement with Russian narratives, especially those promoting partnerships outside the Western sphere. Our findings offer a deeper and more nuanced understanding of authoritarian states’ exertion of sharp power. In addition, we enhance the literature on public diplomacy by demonstrating the varying resonance of public response to narratives from the sending state, as well as the impact of significant events on public reaction to foreign propaganda.