EU Responses to Autocratization: Countering Downward Spirals in Democracy Promotion within the EU Neighborhood

The global retreat of democratic governance has posed a significant challenge to the European Union's (EU) role as a normative power. This research explores the EU's reactions to autocratization processes within its southern neighborhoods and investigates civil society as a potential source of democratic resilience. Building on prior studies of EU democracy promotion, this study fills critical gaps by systematically analyzing EU responses to the "third wave of autocratization" and the dynamics of resistance to democracy erosion in the EU's vicinity under the condition of autocratization within the EU itself. The study employs a comparative methodology, integrating qualitative interviews with policy analysis. It builds on field research conducted in Türkiye and Tunisia, where autocratic trends have been pronounced. Using MAXQDA software allowed for the transcribed interviews' thematic coding and the analysis of policy shifts and civil society dynamics. Data sources included official EU documents, NGO reports, and firsthand accounts from democracy advocates and EU representatives. The research underscores the limitations of EU mechanisms, particularly in adapting to rapidly evolving autocratic tactics and reconciling the tension between conflicting objective in democracy promotion, most importantly between geopolitical goals, such as security interests and ‘migration management and normative claims. On a theoretical level, I argue that a downward spiral of autocratization challenges democracy promotion and erodes the possibilities of well-established democracy promotion efforts. Empirically, it aims at systematically describing the EU’s responses to autocratization in its neighborhood. This is even more concerning as other important actors of democracy promotion, such as the US, are withdrawing from these efforts. This study contributes to the literature by offering a nuanced understanding of the EU's engagement with autocratization processes and its implications for democracy promotion strategies. It advances our theoretical concepts by contextualizing it within the framework of conflicting objectives, emphasizing the interplay between external influences and local agency. Furthermore, it highlights the importance of policy learning in enabling the EU to adapt its democracy promotion efforts to the 'autocratic playbook' and to address the complexities of balancing conflicting goals effectively. Thus, the findings also hold practical relevance for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to reinforce democratic governance amidst a challenging global landscape.