Türkiye and Hungary’s Migration Diplomacy with the EU: Refugee Rentierism and Authoritarian Regime Consolidation

By employing a qualitative research framework centered on comparative case analysis, this study seeks to understand why Türkiye and Hungary have pursued different migration strategies, despite both being led by nationalist right-wing parties. It is puzzling that the nationalist right-wing populist party in Türkiye has taken a strong stance in favor of pro-migration policies for Syrian refugees, despite its declared commitment to nationalism. Instead of implementing long-lasting policies that promote the social inclusion of refugees, the party opted for temporary measures designed to take advantage of these individuals as an inexpensive workforce for its regime consolidation and its international standing. Conversely, Hungary also leverages Ukrainian refugees to advance its political objectives on the international stage, all the while supporting restrictive migration policies at home for regime consolidation. Despite the divergent approaches and varying policies of the European Union regarding the situations in Syria and Ukraine, the migration diplomacy of the European Union with Türkiye and Hungary has successfully catalyzed the formation of a refugee rentier state within these nations, thus facilitating the essential conditions for economic advancement and international recognition, which, in turn, has reinforced the principles of authoritarian populism within the respective states. The present study seeks to fill the academic void concerning the disparate impacts of refugee agreements on governance and domestic institutions within host nations, alongside the influence of refugee rent on the democratic regression observed in varied contexts. It specifically scrutinizes the European Union as the external actor and its engagement in migration issues concerning Türkiye as a non-EU entity and Hungary as a member of the EU. The analysis is anchored in the theoretical construct of "refugee rentierism" that involve Türkiye and Hungary, in conjunction with the European Union.