Feedback effects between local climate policy sequences and public opinion in Germany

Public support for ambitious climate policy is a crucial requirement for successfully reducing greenhouse gas emissions in democracies. Prior research on carbon pricing suggests that the strategic ordering of policies into sequences that initially create benefits could be an effective strategy for broadening public support for subsequent climate policies. Existing evidence for this feedback effect of climate policy on preferences is however very limited. Focusing on climate policies in municipalities in Germany as a case study, we offer novel insights into the potentially complex dynamics by spatially linking two comprehensive data sources: an extensive dataset on climate policies at the municipality level in Germany and a georeferenced panel study on political preferences. By utilizing motions to declare local climate emergencies as a quasi-experimental setting, our results provide suggestive evidence for certain local policy sequences. These motions disrupt the local climate policy sequence and lead to increased output. However, we do not find any statistically significant feedback effect of local climate policies on political attitudes. We discuss several possible explanations for this null result. Overall, our results contribute to our understanding of policy processes and successful strategies for the implementation of ambitious climate policies.