"They Just Don't Get Us": Perceived (Mis)Understanding as a Driver of Affective Polarization and Avoidance Behavior

Prior research has identified partisan meta-perceptions as a potential source of partisan animosity. Building on this work, we introduce a concept that extends beyond perceived like and dislike: perceived understanding. Perceived understanding refers to the perception of how well out-partisans understand in-party voters' values, motives and intentions, and way of life. We expect the more people perceive their co-partisans to be misunderstood by out-party supporters, the more they will be affectively polarized, hostile, and avoidant toward out-partisans. This paper uses three sources of data. First, original cross-sectional survey data from 12 countries is used to examine the prevalence of the perception that in-party supporters are misunderstood and how this correlates with key outcomes. Second, an experimental cognitive interview study in the US shows respondents' top-of-the-head considerations when answering our key survey questions. This will provide further evidence that the concept of perceived understanding differes from meta-perceptions. Third, a experiment assesses the causal effect of perceived (mis)understanding on affective evaluations and action tendencies. Through simultaneous manipulation of the perception of being misunderstood and meta-perceptions, the experiment aims not only to establish causality but also to demonstrate the distinct nature of these two concepts. The cross-sectional results indicate strong associations between perceived (mis)understanding, affective polarization, and avoidance tendency. The experiments have not yet been carried out. This project contributes to the ongoing research on partisan conflict by shedding light on the role of perceived (mis)understanding in shaping inter-group dynamics. The findings can inform targeted countermeasures to mitigate affective polarization and prevent further escalation of partisan animosity.