Constitutional Reform in Bulgaria 2023: unlikely supermajorities and unintended consequences

Bulgaria went through a period of extreme political turbulence in 2020-2023. There were five parliamentary elections that failed to produce stable majorities and lasting governments. After the April 2023 election the two main parties - GERB and PP-DB, which are bitter political opponents - finally agreed to form a coalition government by using a rotation formula for the prime minister. Further, these two parties embarked on an ambitious constitutional reform strengthening judicial independence, reducing the discretionary powers of the prosecutor general, and limiting the role of the president in the appointment of interim (caretaker) governments. Thus, from having no stable parliamentary majority at all, the country transited to being ruled by a constitutional supermajority formed by political rivals. The paper explores the nature of the 2023 constitutional reforms, the decisions of the Bulgarian Constitutional Court on the various amendments, and the reactions of the President of the Republic and other political actors to the reforms. While the forming of a supermajority in the Bulgarian parliament made possible constitutional reforms that have been long overdue, it led to the inclusion in the government of political parties, for whose leaders there still are serious suspicions about corruption. (Some of them have been sanctioned by the US Department of Justice on the basis of the Global Magnitsky Act, for instance). This raises the question about the overall impact of these developments on the rule of law: can the rule of law be strengthened by (necessary) constitutional and legal reforms introduced by players, some of whom have questionable integrity? The paper examines the impact of the adoption of the recent constitutional reforms on party competition in Bulgaria, the capacity of prosecutorial and judicial bodies to fight corruption, and the general preparedness of the country for Eurozone membership. The rule of law and the fight against corruption have been the two main issues preventing the full integration of Bulgaria in the EU. The country is not yet a member of the Eurozone (although it is in the ERM II and its currency is pegged to the euro) and has only recently become member of the Schengen area (with some remaining restrictions still applying on its land borders). Despite the unavoidable politicisation of constitutional matters, the 2023 constitutional reforms have not been used for the purposes of self-entrenchment in office or for the concentration of arbitrary powers. Thus the Bulgarian case is rather different from the adoption of the Hungarian Fundamental Law in 2011, which allowed for specific political players to take over the judiciary and other independent regulators. Yet, supermajorities pause a challenge for democracy since they are in position to bend the constitutional rules in their favour. The pluralism of the Bulgarian constitutional model has been largely preserved by the 2023 reforms, which could be interpreted as an indication of its resilience in turbulent times.