From Discourse to Decision: Tracing the Contours of Influence in EU Environmental Legislation

This study presents an innovative exploration of the dynamics of policy formulation in the European Union, with a specific focus on the regulation of CO2 emissions in the automotive sector. My research is two-pronged, employing both discourse network analysis and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to provide a comprehensive understanding of the influence mechanisms at play. Initially, I employed a novel methodological blend of discourse network analysis and inferential network analysis using exponential random graph models. This approach allowed for a nuanced examination of how the automotive industry, despite opposition from environmentalist NGOs, significantly influenced EU legislation on CO2 emissions. My findings reveal a surprisingly secondary role of MEPs' party affiliation in the decision-making process, with their national origin emerging as a more decisive factor. This aspect sheds new light on the complexity of political influence within the EU. To further develop my methodological framework, I then applied qualitative comparative analysis to the same case study. This approach allowed us to delve deeper into the patterns of interaction at both the micro and macro levels. By constructing a comprehensive discourse network, I was able to trace the process and identify the variables that were either quasi-necessary or quasi-sufficient for the successful inclusion of certain concepts in the final legislation. My analysis included 37 concepts, of which 11 were replicated in the legislative text. A key finding was the contrasting influences of environmental NGOs and the automotive industry, with the latter, in collaboration with key EU institutions, playing a pivotal role in shaping the regulatory outcome. In contrast, the absence of support from environmentalist NGOs was a quasi-sufficient condition for a concept's inclusion in the regulation. This research not only contributes to the existing literature on EU policy analysis, but also demonstrates the applicability and effectiveness of combining discourse network analysis with qualitative comparative analysis. The integration of these methodologies offers a robust and versatile framework for analyzing political discourse and decision-making processes, with implications beyond the realm of environmental policy. The approach provides a novel lens through which the intricate patterns of lobbying and influence in the EU can be discerned, offering valuable insights for policymakers, scholars, and stakeholders alike.