Self-determination claims and movement fragmentation: a longitudinal multimodal network analysis

Whether a self-determination movement is fragmented or cohesive plays an important role for the trajectories and outcomes of territorial conflict. However, the dynamics of movement cohesion and fragmentation over time are still little understood. Previous research indicates that fragmentation is associated with the variety of self-determination demands, ranging from the protection of culture and language rights to class for enhanced autonomy and even outright independence. This paper explores how self-determination claims and movement fragmentation are connected. Which actors align around independence and autonomy claims? And how do claim alignments transform over time? I develop a longitudinal multimodal network approach for the study of the relationship between self-determination actors and claims. I illustrate this approach using data on 90 large protest events from the secessionist cycle of contention in Catalonia between October 2015 and December 2019. The data cover the demands and participating collective actors of each event, which allows tracing actor-claims networks over time. I find that claim alignments transformed as the territorial conflict intensified. During the 2017 referendum campaign, the became more cohesive as protest actors rallied around the right to decide as a central claim. After the referendum, emergent radical organizations and student groups aligned around independence claims, while professional organizations and political parties focused on anti-repression and the protection of autonomy. These findings show that cohesion, fragmentation, and claims-making in self-determination movements are tightly connected.