From Partisan Hearts to Cynical Minds: Affective Polarisation, Political Cynicism and Democratic Norms

In recent years, radical and populist parties have repeatedly scored electoral successes, a trend fuelled by populist and anti-democratic attitudes among the electorate. Concurrently, affective polarisation, characterized by intense divisions between supporters of different political parties, has become a growing concern in many Western democracies. However, several studies have failed to find a causal link between affective polarisation and a weakening of democratic norms and attitudes (Berntzen et al., 2024; Broockman et al., 2023; Voelkel et al., 2023). We posit that political cynicism, reflecting an entrenched form of anti-elitism going beyond mere political distrust, is the missing link. By triangulating several cross-sectional studies (Study 1, N = 5,020; Study 2, N = 67,886) with a factorial vignette experiment (N = 3,000), this paper aims to examine the impact of affective polarisation and political cynicism on democratic norms and attitudes, providing a comprehensive analysis of the interplay of heightened levels of affective polarisation and political cynicism. We find that individuals who display higher levels of political cynicism and affective polarisation indeed hold weaker democratic norms. Importantly, however, affective polarisation plays a minor role relative to political cynicism, mostly influencing democratic norms in individuals who were not already cynical of the political system and its representatives. Moreover, among those with little political cynicism, affective polarisation is associated with holding more democratic attitudes, not less. In sum, this study aims to further illuminate whether affective polarisation has a detrimental impact on the democratic fabric. As the erosion of democratic norms and rise of cynicism and anti-elitism threaten the legitimacy and functioning of democratic institutions, a better understanding of what drives them is highly needed.