Crowding in local lists: Local branches of national parties and the supply and success of local lists

Does the uneven presence of organized branches of national parties facilitate the supply and success of local lists in municipal elections? This paper explores this issue using data from local elections in Portugal going back to 2001, while controlling for institutional, organizational, structural, and actor-oriented factors the literature predicts as drivers of the supply and success of local lists. Since the re-establishment of democratic rule in 1974, local elections in Portugal were under the monopoly of national parties, with local branches of national parties elected for all offices. Starting in the 2001 election, local lists – also called independents – were allowed by law to run for office. Given the uneven presence of national parties at the local level, varying from three in rural municipalities up to eight in Lisbon, we hypothesize that local lists are more likely to emerge (and succeed) in municipalities where the national parties are less present. The paper tests this hypothesis using data from six elections in Portugal during the 2001-2021 period.