Affective Polarization in the Making: Populism, Policies, and Elite Interactions

Affective polarization in contemporary politics is increasingly prevalent, yet the mechanisms through which political elites foster such polarization remain underexplored. This study addresses this gap by examining how elite rhetoric constructs in-party and out-party identities in election campaigns, particularly in contexts where opposition parties challenge entrenched populist governments. Employing a mixed-methods approach, including quantitative content analysis (N = 14,668) and time series analysis, the research illuminates strategies contributing to opposition electoral success. The findings indicate that heightened elite interactions intensify affective polarization, with policies leveraged to enhance in-party polarization and populism to drive out-party polarization. Despite its divisive nature, populism is also instrumentalized to bolster in-party identities and establish credibility over agendas. The analysis focuses on the 2019 Istanbul and Budapest mayoral elections, highlighting how opposition victories against populists hinge on selective issue emphasis to counter crisis narratives, while also entailing the adoption of populist rhetoric, perpetuating a dearth of substantive policy discourse crucial for democratic governance.