Ethno-linguistic Divisions and the Willingness to Fight: Attitudes in Latvia before and after Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrates the importance of civilian resistance to armed aggression. It has also raised questions about the willingness of societies to defend the state in other countries, particularly in countries that are vulnerable to Russian aggression in the post-post-Soviet space. To what extent are ethno-linguistic divisions still important for explaining attitudes toward defense in states that have sizable ethnic minorities? How important are those divisions in Latvia, a country formerly occupied by the Soviet Union, but a member of NATO and the European Union for the past twenty years? This paper utilizes public opinion data in Latvia before and after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 to explore the factors that influence active defense (individual is willing to fight in a war/conflict) and passive defense (state should provide armed resistance). Logistic regression analysis reveals that in both the cases of active and passive defense, support for defense has increased among the Russian-speakers in Latvia, however overall levels of support still notably trail that of Latvian-speakers. In addition to the role of ethno-linguistic identities, other variables including, sex (male/female), pride in one’s country, parenthood, and satisfaction with the functioning of democracy are important for shaping attitudes toward the willingness to fight for one’s country.