Accessing Markets or Exporting Norms? The Determinants of Democratic Provisions in EU Trade Agreements

The European Union (EU) has been characterised as a conflicted trade power. It seeks to secure market access for its enterprises while simultaneously using trade as a foreign policy tool to propagate its institutional values such as human rights and democracy. Given the EU’s dualistic approach to trade, this paper investigates which factors influence the inclusion of democracy-related provisions in EU preferential trade agreements (PTAs). Using novel data of democracy-related provisions compiled using manual coding and machine learning, I conduct regression analysis on 199 PTAs signed by the EU from 1957-2023. The results show that the accession agreements with non-EU European nations contain the most democracy-related provisions. In contrast, PTAs with countries which the EU has identified as economically significant incorporate relatively fewer democracy clauses. Furthermore, agreements with consolidated democracies are observed to contain a greater number of democracy clauses than those with autocratic regimes. Overall, the findings suggest that the EU adopts varied frameworks for its trade agreements, tailored to the strategic importance of each trading partner. This paper sheds light on the EU's dual role as both a commercial and a normative power and reflects its internal conflict between gaining market shares and exporting democratic principles.