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Selective responses to the climate crisis: Multilateral development banks and oracular power

Development
Governance
Institutions
International Relations
World Bank
Climate Change
Communication
Policy-Making
Timon Forster
Universität St Gallen
Timon Forster
Universität St Gallen

Abstract

Amidst the climate crisis, all major multilateral development banks (MDBs) have recognized the need for their involvement in financing low-carbon development—and, consequently, have committed to aligning their efforts with the Paris Agreement. How, exactly, do these institutions respond to global warming? Which aspects of climate change do they emphasize; which dimensions do they neglect in their reorientation? I argue we can answer these questions by recognizing that MDBs have, to different degrees, the ability to exercise oracular power—that they can shape the consensus about where the boundary between ignorance and knowledge about climate policy lies. This boundary work of MDBs is manifest in their official, outward-facing communication, such as public leader speeches. Empirically, I uncover the frames and priorities of climate action expressed by leaders of four MDBs that vary in size, clientele, and ownership structure: the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, the Caribbean Development Bank, and the African Development Bank. Based on an original text corpus, I estimate word embeddings and automated text analysis techniques to understand the context in which these organizations speak about climate change—e.g., whether they promote climate action on moral grounds or whether they emphasize technological solutions. To understand which dimensions they regard as being amenable to policy reform, I compare the organization-specific priorities with coverage of climate issues in the media. In addition to its substantial policy relevance, this research advances academic debates on the political economy of MDBs and the political communication of international financial institutions.