Trust towards and support for the European Union in Armenia and Georgia: How trends changed during the last decade

This paper explores the level of trust towards, and support for, the European Union (EU) among two of its eastern partner countries in the South Caucasus, Armenia and Georgia. Based on Caucasus Barometer (CB) data, representative surveys of the adult population in these two countries conducted by the Caucasus Research Resource Centers (CRRC) since 2008, the paper looks at how the attitudes of people living in Armenia and Georgia towards the EU changed over the last decade. Using regression analyses, the paper also examines which demographic variables are predictors for trust and support of the EU in both countries. Data shows that while general trust towards the EU was higher in Georgia compared to Armenia before 2013, the percentage of those displaying trust became closer within both countries between 2013 and 2019, being 27% in 2015 and reaching 37% in 2019. In the 2021 survey, more than half of the population of Armenia claimed to trust the EU, while this share was 10 percentage points lower in Georgia. The picture is different when it comes to support of one’s country joining the EU. Before 2015, the percentage of people in Georgia who supported the country’s membership in the EU was higher compared to Armenia, while the percentages became closer within both countries in 2015 (about 40%). After 2015 the share of support increased in Georgia and reached 63% in 2021, while levels of support remained the same in Armenia and has not exceeded 40% in recent years. The upcoming CB 2024 will add new data and insight to these findings. In addition, preliminary regression analysis shows that age seems to be a significant determinant of EU support. While in Georgia young people are more likely to support EU membership compared to the older generations, differences between age groups are not as significant in Armenia.