Plus ça change…Explaining EU policy adaption towards the European Neighbourhood in the light of rising authoritarianism

The EU wishes to support a peaceful and prosperous neighbourhood in wish democracy can flourish. However, the Union's eastern and southern neighbourhoods are characterized by de-democratization, violent conflict and war. Out of the 23 neighbours, Freedom House (2021) classifies only two, namely, Israel and Tunisia, as “free” countries. Twelve neighbours are classified as “partly free” (i.e., Albania, Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Lebanon, Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Ukraine) and nine are classified as “not free” (i.e., Algeria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Palestine, Syria, and Turkey). Libya, Syria and Ukraine are affected by war. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, and Moldova, suffer from low-intensity or frozen conflicts over political order, territory or identity. Given the current rise of authoritarianism and processes of de-democratization in the neighbourhood, how does the EU adapt its European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) framework and what causes the (lack of) adaption? The paper analyses ENP strategy papers of EU bodies (Commission, Parliament, Council) and ENP progress reports of 23 neighbours over the last two decades to reveal scope and content of actual policy changes. Interviews with selected EUDP stakeholders shed light on reform dynamics and blockages. It is argued that the EU indeed responds to changing political circumstances in an increasingly multipolar and authoritarian world, but the EU-internal blockages prevent a quicker and more efficient policy adaption within its ENP framework. This paper is a contribution from the Horizon-Europe funded collaborative research project EMBRACE.