Russia Ukraine Frozen Conflict: Results of an Expert Survey

We argue that while some ask whether the current war between Russia and Ukraine will turn into a frozen conflict, this is a misconception. The frozen conflict between Russia and Ukraine started already in 2015. The right question is whether the frozen conflict can end with the current war. Our project draws insights from a Frozen Conflict dataset we recently compiled with our colleagues at the Peace Research Centre Prague and which was published in the Journal of Peace Research. In the Fall, we approached almost two hundred experts who had recently published about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in leading policy journals, including Foreign Affairs. We surveyed their estimates on a range of issues pertaining to the current war. We believe Ukraine has a realistic chance to win the current war and liberate its territories. However, the results of the expert survey as well as our previous work on frozen conflicts, strongly suggest that Ukraine’s victory is unlikely to solve the existing frozen conflict. Wars historically ended only a handful of frozen conflicts, and each ‘violent thawing’ required a conquest of the vanquished capital and imposition of a new regime. The defeated side could not hope to reverse the outcome of the war in the future. Even full liberation of all the occupied territories is unlikely to resolve the underlying core issues driving the continued enmity between Russia and Ukraine. The continued frozen conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not the worst possible outcome. Countries like South Korea and Israel have successfully developed while living in a frozen conflict. However, the West needs to plan accordingly. That is, to enable Ukraine to liberate as much territory as possible before the conflict freezes and to ensure continued viability and security of Ukraine within such conflict until the changes in Russia or broader international politics allow for resolving the underlying issues.