Local predictors of anti-immigrant violence in Sweden: causal pathways and their variation over two waves of migration

This study aims to investigate the local contextual factors that contribute to far-right political violence, building upon a previous study that focused on arson attacks against asylum housing facilities in Sweden between 2015 and 2016. By utilizing fuzzy-set QCA to analyze 90 cases, we discovered strong evidence for a causal pathway linking arson attacks to a combination of three factors: [a] the presence of local far-right groups, [b] broader local anti-immigrant mobilization, and [c] electoral support for far-right parties. This combination explained approximately 40% of the cases. Each factor, on its own, was arbitrarily related to the emergence of violence. The results suggest that far-right violence should be explained as the combined result of organizational resources, emergent local discourses, and the broader legitimacy of far-right ideology. This paper tests the broader generalizability of the results from the previous study and explores alternative causal pathways. By expanding the empirical analysis through a comparison with violent crimes against migrants during the 2007-2009 wave of migration from Iraq, the paper allows us to explore differences and similarities over time, including the location of the attack, type of attack, and specific targets. By conceptualizing the identified combination of factors, the paper opens for further comparisons between the current case and others, historically and internationally.