Economic crisis and democratization: the role of elite divisions within authoritarian governments

Defections from the ruling elite are acknowledged as the primary mechanism behind the relationship between economic crisis and democratization. Yet, there is no cross-sectional research testing this observation. Using a novel dataset on elite defections based on the political career of above 28 thousand politicians in 18 electoral autocracies, this paper tests the mediating effect of elite defections and shows what types of defections are more relevant to weaken authoritarian regimes. Findings suggest that economic crises improve democratization prospects when defection gets viral and defectors coordinate with other elites outside the ruling coalition and voters. Moreover, when regime elites collectively organize their departure, autocrats seem better able to undermine such an elite threat through co-optation and repression. Thus, they avoid collective defections from spreading and becoming politically relevant