Satisfaction with democracy after winning and losing without elections

Citizens who support a party included in the government are systematically more satisfied with democracy compared to supporters of an opposition party. However, does this winner-loser gap materialize also in the absence of an election? We make use of the European Social Survey (ESS) Round 8 data collection in Estonia (2016/2017) which was unexpectedly split by a switch of the largest party included in the three-party coalition more than 20 months after the parliamentary elections. Via a difference-in-differences design, we examine the effect of this status change on citizens’ satisfaction with democracy. The preliminary results suggest that satisfaction with democracy deteriorates among the voters who become losers. Though, no discernible effect is found among the new winners. However, the fact that the magnitude of the effect is rather small raises the question whether the role of winner-loser status on one’s democratic satisfaction is not overstated once a research leverages an improved identification strategy.