Social media and policy change: the influence of netizens on Chinese government policies during the COVID 19 pandemic

We still know surprisingly little about when and why governments respond to changes in opinion expressed on social media, and even less about when and why they respond with policy change. This lack of understanding is particularly surprising for authoritarian systems, and especially for China, given the greater attention that has been paid to the potential political effects of social media in autocracies. Yet so far, the focus of studies about China has been almost exclusively on single cases of events – such as scandals and natural disasters. There is also a small handful of studies focused on government responsiveness that have found that local governments in China can respond (with an acknowledging reply) to individuals’ demands posted on government websites. Although insightful, neither type of study can explain if and why governments do – and sometimes do not – respond to opinion in social media by changing policy. Our paper, based on systematic analysis of comprehensive social media and policy datasets, shows that the public’s opinions expressed on micro-blogging site Sina Weibo influenced both national and local government changes in policies to combat COVID-19. Although the authorities dominated much social media discussion, where netizens focussed on a single issue that was in line with policy priorities, they sometimes responded with narrowly-focussed, low-cost policies that did not require significant intra-bureaucratic coordination. We find that social media discussions can lead to policy change via two routes: when a single post ‘goes viral’, and when many netizens’ posts aggregate over a short period to create a peak of salience. Posts may be more likely to go viral and affect policy if they have video content and are reposted by mainstream media or non-governmental organisations.