I Don't Know, it's Not on My Backyard! The Effect of Distance Decay on Perceptions of Pledge Fulfilment in Local Elections

The studies of citizens‘ perception of pledge fulfilment previously found that people are influenced in the evaluation of pledge fultilment by their interest in politics, issue salience or personal experience with the issue. The distance decay effect has, however, not be studied yet in the studies of citizens‘ pledge evaluations. The fact that the pledge non/fulfilment can be geographically localized closer to some citizens than to the others, can influence the spreading of the information only for some citizens, and therefore, to increase the correctness of their evaluation of pledge fulfilment. In the proposed paper we examine the perception of pledge fulfilment at the local level. Research was conducted as comparative analysis of 6 municipalities in Southern Moravian Region (Brno, Blansko, Břeclav, Vranovice, Tišnov, Vyškov). The municipalities differ significantly in their size. Firstly, we analyze party coalition agreements in municipalities and find that there is a difference in what is proposed to citizens in different municipalities. There are only few localized promises in coalition agreement in the biggest city (Brno), whereas coalition agreements in smaller towns are composed mainly from pledges localized to distinct parts of the municipalities. Secondly, we look on what affects the correct perception of pledge fulfilment. Analysis is based on data from exit-poll survey conducted in front of 56 polling places during 2018 local elections covering opinion of 2 500 respondents. What we consider here as factor specific for local politics is strong connection to local environment. Pledge is more likely to be connected to certain location in local elections than in national one. We asked about fulfillment of several pledges embodied in some locality within municipality. We analyzed differences in awareness of fulfilment according to factors considered as important on national level (issue salience, political knowledge, voting for ruling coalition) and on geographical distance to location of given pledge. We identified strong effect of distance, especially in the case of fulfilled pledges in municipalities outside Brno. Contrarily, we found stronger effect in the case of broken promise in Brno. Results can be interpreted as a manifestation of phenomenon labeled as distance decay in information flow.