Public opinion in the transformation of the German unemployment benefit system – An analysis of media survey data from 1998 to 2017

Opinion surveys constitute an important pillar in the media coverage of political developments and in the political debate. Political actors can use surveys to evaluate how their proposals are perceived by the public and use survey results as a political instrument to mobilize political support. Media reporting on ‘what the public wants’ can create real political consequences – regardless of the validity of survey data. Focusing on the issue of unemployment benefits in Germany from 1998 to 2017, this paper analyzes what is presented as public opinion in the political processes of welfare state transformation. The German unemployment benefit system was fundamentally transformed in the early 2000s which triggered strong public reactions and protests and is point of political contention to this day. Because survey data is perceived by the public as well as political actors, the issues addressed in the surveys are as relevant as their respective results. Therefore, it is analyzed how unemployment and unemployment benefits have been addressed in media opinion surveys and how the questions relate to political events in the policy discourse at the time. Moreover, developments of survey responses are traced. The research is based on Politbarometer and Deutschlandtrend opinion data. Both are commissioned by public media outlets and poll opinion on issues that are expected to resonate in the public discourse. All survey items that address the issue of unemployment and unemployment benefits are included in the sample. The article shows that unemployment transfers do not matter in public opinion surveys in many years. It finds that opinion surveys are reactive to policy makers and policy output but pay limited attention to issues discussed in parliament. Moreover, politicians prove to be important in shaping how unemployment is addressed in the surveys and notable shifts in the way unemployment transfers have been addressed can be observed.