Navigating Troubled Waters: Pathways of Water Institutions and Decision-Making in a fragile political context

How have events, structures and processes of authoritarian regimes (and related social movements for liberty and independence) impacted formal and informal rules in the Tunisian water sector? Institutional decisions and the socio-ecological context within which water institutions and rules are rooted matter. This research paper provides a diagnostic assessment of causal or explanatory relationships between historical forces and institutional outcomes by identifying key disturbances and norms that have influenced water policy-making and implementation since the creation of the Tunisian Republic in the 1950s. The paper will begin with a diagnostic of the roots of Tunisian nation-making during the colonial order and move on to show how a history of authoritarian regimes came to shape mechanisms of domination anchored in commonplace economic operations (Hibou, 2011). Grounded in theories of historical institutionalism and using methods of process tracing, this paper strives to dissect the political processes that govern the current water crisis in Tunisia. The evolution of national water institutions is assessed using primary qualitative data from expert interviews and secondary data from historical documentation, archival sources and hydrological datasets. The method of process tracing provides a systemic assessment of diagnostic evidence and will serve as the key qualitative tool of analysis. With a focus on sequence, process tracing helps to produce causal inferences between historic events and rulemaking. The unfolding of situations or events over time starts with careful descriptive inference that captures a series of snapshots at specific moments in time. This paper produces evidence for path-dependency in the water sector and analyses how authoritarian rules conditioned policy-making and collective behaviour. It highlights how the political rhetoric of agricultural production and rural development have limited the scope of effective water policy-making and implementation in present-day Tunisia. The paper further shows how current political dynamics, which revoke memories of authoritarian regimes, are products of past decisions and how they influence the future of water governance and the livelihood of millions.