The Downstream Effects of Prior Statehood on Contemporary Secessionism

One of the purported causes of secessionism is prior statehood; stateless nations that were once independent states are more likely to seek independence in contemporary times. Indeed, the Scots, Catalans, Bugandans, and Acehnese, among others, have referenced prior statehood in their arguments for why they deserve independence. Yet no one has comprehensively examined whether prior statehood correlates with contemporary secessionism. Part of the problem is a lack of data on statehood in earlier periods. We investigate this relationship by bringing together two datasets: (1) The new International Systems Dataset (ISD) version 2, which identifies several hundred states in the 19th century; and (2) Griffiths’ data on contemporary secessionist movements. In a large-N analysis, we explore the relationship between the locations of prior states and the political ambitions of their descendant nations.