Aggregate-level economic voting research has long-struggled with the instability dilemma of the Vote-Popularity function. This paper will offer an alternative view on the way the electorate holds incumbents to account: instead of making vote choices as a function of economic performance, I posit that voters look at the economic (fiscal) policies and assess their impact on their personal finances. My model suggests that on the aggregate-level one will observe a counter-cyclical voting pattern in response to fiscal decisions as the fiscal preferences of the median voter changes according to the business cycle. Testing these hypotheses on the individual-level and the aggregate-level in the UK context, my empirical findings corroborate these propositions.
