Pouring fuel into the fire: Rethinking European policy in times of energy crisis, climate collapse and war in Ukraine

The European Union’s disregard for the economic, geopolitical and climate change concerns of its own Periphery in Eastern Europe has made the war in Ukraine possible. Its consequences are now returning in the form of energy dependence and economic instability. This should prompt a re-assessment of the EU’s strategy towards its eastern neighbours, in particular in the field of energy and climate policy. This article attempts to outline such a re-assessment, drawing from the framework of world systems analysis, which regards control over cheap energy as a key material foundation of state and interstate power. On this basis, we analyze the struggle between Russia and the European core over Ukraine in terms of the ability to extract an economic surplus through the unequal exchange of energy. The current escalation should be understood as an attempt of the Russian Petrostate to preserve the economic basis of its regime, which is threatened by the prospect of a low-carbon transition in Europe. We conclude that a massive acceleration of the transition away from fossil fuels is the key to economic, geopolitical and climate stabilization, and point to possible policy instruments the EU could use to act upon the lessons it should draw from the war in Ukraine.