Mechanisms of Authoritarian Resurgence: How do diffusion forces and authoritarian strategies play out in the EU’s backyard?

The global resurgence of authoritarianism has led to a shift in the international context for democracy. In December 2021, a global summit on democracy was organized by the US, starting from the premise that democracy needs to be defended. The European Union, a self-declared union of democratic states, has struggled with the rise of authoritarianism among its member states, while its long-standing emphasis on democracy promotion has encountered opposing forces. This paper offers a theoretical framework exploring the mechanisms behind the spread of authoritarianism, illustrated with the case of the EU and its broader neighbourhood. The analytical framework conceptualizes the interactions between external democratic and authoritarian influences and domestic elites. We suggest that competing external influences diversify options for domestic elites that pick and choose, with ideological convergence and the political economy of patronage networks providing distinct pathways to explain the domestic uptake of external governance modes and narratives.