Economic Hardship and Social Inequalities as Driving Forces of Affective Polarisation: A Comparative Analysis of European Democracies

Since Iyengar, Sood and Lelkes’ (2012) seminal work showed that the public perceives politics primarily in affective rather than ideological terms, the focus of American polarisation literature shifted to affective polarisation. Derived from social identity theory, affective polarisation constitutes the difference between an individual’s positive bias towards parties and voters who are ideologically similar, and negative bias towards parties and voters who are ideologically distant (Iyengar & Krupenkin, 2018). Despite its association with problematic outcomes (e.g., Iyengar et al., 2019; Reiljan, 2020), European polarisation literature only recently shifted towards affective polarisation. This article explores whether economic hardship and labour market insecurity increase an individual’s affective polarisation, controlling for socio-economic, cultural, and political context in European democracies. It posits that individuals suffering from adverse economic or financial conditions are more likely to experience a lack of self-esteem and self-certainty, which they try to recuperate by emphasising their group identity, such as political partisanship (Mason, 2018, pp. 135–136; Staub, 2001). This strengthens their social distance and negative bias towards political out-groups, hence increasing affective polarisation. Economic hardship and labour market insecurity are operationalised through income inequality, unemployment rate, household income, and employment status. Whereas Gidron, Adams and Horne (2020) found a positive relationship between country-level affective polarisation, and income inequality and unemployment rate, this research goes beyond the aggregate level utilising linear mixed-effects regression modelling. It adopts a distinct comparative perspective to assess the effects of different economic components across diverse contexts. The analysis finds that individuals who experience employment insecurity, reside in countries with high income inequality, and receive very low income tend to be more affectively polarised, even when controlling for influential political factors central in the polarisation literature. Thus, economic hardship and labour market insecurity may further exacerbate an individual’s affective polarisation and therefore should be accounted for.