Emigration and welfare in the EU: the social consequences of the right to exit

The relationship between the EU’s free movement regime and social solidarity has received ample scholarly attention. Yet, this has been done almost exclusively from the perspective of countries of destination. We know surprisingly little about the ‘other side’ of the migration phenomenon, i.e., the welfare-related implications of large-scale emigration, which takes place predominantly from peripheral EU member states towards the core. In this paper we break new ground using an original survey fielded in 15 EU member states in 2021. We ask how (real and perceived) emigration shapes people’s attitudes about social spending in their country of origin, and whether concern about emigration fuels preferences for a European Social Union. This is a crucial matter because social policy brings together crosscutting rather than overlapping divisions on solidarity and authority. This means that even if erosion is taking place at the national level, the expansion of EU-level involvement may encounter resistance. Our starting hypothesis is that, on the one hand, like immigration, emigration too may reduce solidaristic preferences ‘back home’ as people worry about the sustainability of the welfare state and increased taxation burdens. On the other hand, a counter-mechanism is also feasible, i.e., citizens worried about emigration could support a more generous welfare state to prevent the continued emigration of co-nationals abroad. This article contributes to the empirical literature on the consequences of freedom of movement on welfare states by gauging the effects of the overlooked right to exit.