Time and climate policymaking: explaining the EU's level of shortsightedness

A prior study investigating the EU’s shortsightedness has shown that in contrast to the EU’s own positioning, the ambition of the European Green Deal (EGD) can be seen as a return to the ambition level as the 2020 Package rather than a transformative turn. Furthermore, sectoral policies designed to help reach the overall targets (in this case the CO2 emission performance standards of new passenger cars) have displayed considerable shortsightedness as well. Many of the proposed more farsighted amendments to the 2019 Passenger Car Regulation (under revision as part of the EGD) can be considered ‘too little too late’, raising questions about how the EU will meet its EGD objectives of 55% emission reduction by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. This paper aims at explaining the degree of shortsightedness of EU overall and sectoral climate policy and the variation within it, as a first step to offering solutions for it. Focusing on the legislative process and the relevant institutions (European Commission, European Parliament, and Council of Ministers), I investigate five elements in particular: (1) political cycles; (2) elements of continuity; (3) temporal autonomy and anticipatory compliance; (4) decision-making structures; and (5) institutional openness. To this end, I have conducted a series of interviews with policy stakeholders, complemented by insights from the wider EU literature. Preliminary results show that the division of preferences in the Member States related to the cost of the transition has a decisive influence not only in the Council but also in the Commission and the Parliament. Nevertheless, increasing awareness about climate change in the institutions and wider society, and the move of climate policymaking to the centre of the political debate, has mitigated the focus on costs. Finally, policy cycles mostly have an influence on the timing of discussions rather than on the substance.