Recently, serious economic crises in a number of Euro-zone countries have paved the way for the ongoing political squabbles over the future of the European Union (EU). Now, increasing numbers of scholars and policymakers alike have started asking: if the enduring impasse is signaling the EU-decline as an institution and as an international actor?
This article explores the reasons and policy repercussions of the declining-EU from the perspective of the citizens of its longest waiting, still in line, candidate country: Turkey. More specifically, the article seeks to explain to what extent the demise of the popular drive for the EU in Turkey can be interpreted as the reason for Turks’ reluctance to support the pro-EU policies, and thus, to what extent such reluctance paves the way for detaching Turkish foreign policy from its long-standing European vision. To this end, the article benefits from the surveys conducted by the Eurobarometer concerning the issues such as trust in the EU as an institution, its democratic functioning as a Union, as well as about the perceptions on the benefits of prospective Turkish membership; and using the 2011 Transatlantic Trends surveys to explore the views toward the EU as an international actor addressing questions on CFSP-NATO relationship. Preliminary findings suggest that the puzzles concerning the EU-decline are unlikely to be limited merely with Turkey, and hence they can be interpreted as the signals of the broader EU-decline as a global actor. In light of these findings, at theoretical level, the article sheds light on the explanatory potential of public opinion on interpreting foreign policy.
Key Words: European Union (EU): future, decline, enlargement, CFSP/ESDP; Turkey, Eurobarometer, Transatlantic Trends, Foreign Policy Public Opinion interaction
