Does Ideology Trump Geography? Political Cleavages and MEP Responses to Democratic Backsliding

Multiple rounds of EU enlargement and the rise of populist forces across Europe have affected the organisation of political competition in the European Parliament (EP). Investigating MEP responses to democratic backsliding among member states, we examine how the structure of these cleavages relates to MEPs’ geographic origin and their ideological positions. We conduct our empirical analysis based on 21 roll-call votes and corresponding parliamentary debates held in the European Parliament between 2009 and 2019. Our findings indicate that MEPs from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as well as those holding populist or Eurosceptic views are less likely to vote for EU resolutions condemning rule of law violations, with a notable interaction between CEE origin and Euroscepticism. We further explore the reasons underpinning MEPs’ voting decisions by employing discourse analysis to parliamentary debates preceding the relevant roll-call votes. Our results confirm an increasingly salient cross-cutting cleavage in the EP and highlight the consolidation of a core group of CEE Eurosceptics who are mounting a growing contestation of the EU.