(Mis)Perceptions of Public Opinion & their Causes: The Role of Interest Groups

If politicians are to make policy that is congruent with public opinion, they ought to be aware of public opinion on those policy issues on which they make decisions. However, there is evidence from the United States that politicians systematically overestimate the level of conservatism of the public. This may ultimately lead them to adopt policy that is more conservative than what the public desires. We know less about how accurately politicians perceive public opinion in European multiparty systems and what contributes to explaining possible biases in perceptions of public opinion. Our paper addresses these questions with original data from surveys with citizens and elected representatives at the local, regional and national level in Denmark and the Netherlands. We explore potential biases in how politicians at different levels of government perceive public opinion by examining the extent to which they can correctly estimate public opinion on ten salient policy issues. We then look at the potential drivers of possible misperceptions. We pay particular attention to the role played by ties to different types of interest groups. Our results have important implication for understanding political representation and the role of interest groups in democratic politics.