Mainstream Party Responsiveness and the Electoral Success of Populist Parties in Europe

Nowadays, the success of populist parties is at the heart of our debates in society and academia. Populist parties are considered a threat to liberal democracies and pluralist values. Against this background scholars have especially focused on the drivers of the electoral success of (right-wing) populist parties. Dysfunctional representation is often claimed to be the root cause of this success: “the crisis of representation […] is at the root of any populist, anti-institutional outburst […]” (Laclau 2005: 137). According to Hawkins and Rovira Kaltwasser (2017), a lack of representation is the context of mobilization for populist parties. Surprisingly, there are few studies that systematically investigate the connection between a lack of representation and populist electoral success across time and countries. This paper combines theoretical insights from representation and party research to examine the relationship between a low level of issue-based agenda-responsiveness and the electoral success of populist parties in 27 member states of the European Union from 2002 until 2018. Starting from a threefold conceptualization of the "crisis of representation” – dwindling linkage, changing lines of conflict, and the tension between responsiveness and responsibility – we develop a new measure of issue-based agenda-responsiveness between voters and parties. The index is based on an issue salience approach comparing voters’ most important problems with electoral programs. Notably, we find no evidence of a lack of issue-based agenda-responsiveness between established parties and the mean voters (over time). Yet, our results indicate a low degree of responsiveness towards the so-called “losers of globalization” (Kriesi et al. 2006: 921). This lack of responsiveness is among the main drivers for the success of right-wing populist parties in the member states of the European Union. These findings have important implications for the wider debate on the crisis of representation, and who is left in the void.